Report Overview

This report highlights the latest insights from the Skift Travel Health Index. The index covers travel’s performance since January 2020, up to and including July 2022.

The Skift Travel Health Index is a real-time measure of the performance of the travel industry at large, and the core verticals within it. The Index provides the travel industry with a powerful tool for strategic planning, which is of utmost importance as times remain uncertain.

Skift Research launched the Index in May 2020 as the Skift Recovery Index. At the start of 2022 we rebranded the Index as the Skift Travel Health Index, to reflect some far-ranging changes: the addition of many more indicators, additional data partners, and most importantly, our continued effort to track the industry health beyond the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

We are thankful for the support of our data partners: Amadeus, Aviasales, Beyond, CarTrawler, Cendyn, Collinson, Criteo, Duetto, ForwardKeys, Hotelbeds, Key Data Dashboard, OAG, Onyx CenterSource, OTA Insight, RateGain, Shiji Group, Skyscanner, Sojern, Transparent, and TrustYou. Their data allows us to provide you with a monthly assessment of travel’s performance.

Asia Pacific Is Exception to General Decline in Travel Performance

The Skift Travel Health Index declined by two points in July 2022. The Index stood at 84 points compared to a baseline of 100 in July 2019. 

Like the previous month, growth was registered in Asia Pacific, the region that still suffers the largest gap to 2019 levels (-25 points).  All other regions saw their score declining in July, although Latin America and North America continued to track at par with 2019 performance levels.

Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Jun-Jul change
Asia Pacific545659637375+2 pp
Europe828390969587-8 pp
Latin America9497105103103100-3 pp
Middle East and Africa888893999590-5 pp
North America949710110010399-4 pp
Global average727478818684-2 pp

Aviation and Hotels Saw Decline

With regard to travel sectors, most of the decline came from hotels, while aviation also saw some weakening. Vacation rentals continued to perform above 2019 levels. 

Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Jun-Jul change
Aviation596366687169-2 pp
Hotels7779879510396-7 pp
Vacation Rentals110109105105106108+2 pp
Car Rental828284858788+1 pp

The weakness in Hotels stems from a declining performance in hotel bookings in all regions. While we cannot be certain, worsening economic performance and continuing high hotel prices might have an impact on future bookings. 

Searches for hotel stays increased in all regions, with especially Asia Pacific seeing a strong increase in the past months as countries relaxed travel rules. Searches for hotels in Europe were still only half of 2019 levels. Actual Hotel Performance, which includes occupancy and rates data, was stable or increased in all regions. 

Airlines have received a lot of bad press as of late, but their score only declined slightly. Airline seat capacity data from OAG shows that for August, scheduled seat volumes are still below 2019 levels for most countries, indicating that the expected demand remains lower than pre-pandemic or issues with staffing are suppressing available supply. There are some outliers though. Mexico has especially strong international and domestic seat capacity, while Russia has high domestic capacity, but low international flight capacity, mostly due to sanctions related to its war with Ukraine. 

China has the starkest difference between international and domestic performance. As reported in last month’s update, there is a belief that the government might start to reduce some of the strictest measures when Covid cases flare up, but it is still hanging on to its zero-Covid policy for now. More than 80,000 tourists have been stranded on the resort of Sanya after a Covid outbreak. The Chinese government moved quickly to order all flights and train links canceled following hundreds of positive cases. 

This policy is having an impact on domestic travel, as we see domestic flight capacity and room nights booked for Chinese hotels fluctuating significantly over the past two years as parts of the country have gone in and come out of lockdowns. But the biggest impact is unsurprisingly on international arrivals and departures, as most country borders are still closed. 

What If The Chinese Traveled Internationally… Today?

We analyzed the importance of Chinese travelers for the 21 other countries we cover in our Index, and performed a rudimentary exercise to see what their impact would be on countries’ Index score. 

Due to its proximity, Hong Kong is the destination most reliant on Chinese travelers, followed by other Asian countries like Thailand, Japan, and Singapore, all seeing over 20% of their foreign arrivals stemming from China.  

Chinese Outbound Travelers (2018) by Destination

China Outbound (‘000s)China as % of total
Hong Kong 19,902 68.0%
Thailand 16,874 44.2%
Japan 8,380 26.9%
Singapore 3,418 23.3%
Indonesia 2,139 16.0%
Australia 1,432 15.5%
UAE 1,481 7.3%
Russia 1,690 6.9%
Italy 3,201 5.2%
Germany 1,592 4.1%
U.S. 2,992 3.8%
Canada 737 3.5%
France 2,176 2.4%
Turkey 1,028 2.2%
Spain 1,452 1.8%
India 282 1.6%
Argentina 72 1.0%
UK 391 1.0%
South Africa 100 1.0%
Brazil 56 0.9%
Mexico 168 0.4%

Source: UNWTO

While the Index provides a holistic insight into the health of the travel industry, and this is not directly comparable with simple arrival numbers as provided above, collating the two datasets does provide an interesting insight into the impact Chinese travelers would have on global recovery. 

Taking the Index score for each country, and adding the share of Chinese travelers to each destination, highlights how a full return of Chinese travelers could pull Thailand, Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore back to pre-pandemic travel performance. While very much a ‘back of the envelope’ exercise, it clarifies why Asian destinations in particular are not back to pre-pandemic levels of performance yet, and what the impact of an opening of Chinese borders could have for those destinations. 

Note Regarding Methodology Change

The Index consists of five different buckets with each holding a number of indicators. One of these buckets has always been Macroeconomics, containing four indicators that have tracked the broader economic condition of each country, tracking unemployment rates, industrial production, retail sales, and stock market returns. It has become harder and harder to track this data reliably in comparison to 2019 levels, which is a key methodology that we utilize across all our indicators in the Index. We have therefore decided to remove the Macroeconomics indicators from the Index.

The Macroeconomics bucket accounted for 5% of the total Index score, and this weighting has been redistributed across the other four buckets: Aviation, Hotels, Vacation Rentals, and Car Rental. As Macroeconomics contributed only a small percentage of the total score, we are seeing very little impact on the overall score of the Index. 

Methodology

Data Partners

Skift Research collects and analyzes data from 20 different data partners, to provide the most comprehensive view of the travel industry’s performance. 

Index Design

The Index tracks 84 indicators per country to assess the health of the travel industry in each country. These indicators are aggregated into performance categories and sub-categories. The top level of division is by travel vertical, and each vertical is further divided by intent indicators, booking indicators, and key performance indicators.

The Index covers the following travel sectors:

Country Coverage

The Index focuses on the travel performance in 22 of the largest tourism economies, combined accounting for 62% of inbound tourism receipts, 67% of outbound tourism expenditure, and 78% of global 2019 GDP.

– Argentina

– Australia

– Brazil

– Canada

– China

– France

– Germany

– Hong Kong, China

– India

– Indonesia

– Italy

– Japan

– Mexico

– Russia

– Singapore

– South Africa

– Spain

– Thailand

– Turkey

– U.S.

– United Arab Emirates

– United Kingdom

Index Score Calculation

The Index is designed to provide an easy overview of the health of the travel industry. We have tracked the industry since the beginning of 2020. For 2020, 2021, and 2022 data, the performance of each indicator is compared to the same time in 2019. The Index provides a score relative to a baseline reading of 100 for the same month in 2019.

The full methodology can be found on our website

Data Tables

Total Skift Travel Health Index Scores by Country

Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022
Argentina72.259.076.382.098.694.998.995.4
Australia61.257.973.386.694.692.398.792.5
Brazil94.880.397.397.7106.1103.9100.195.7
Canada65.155.376.689.994.097.4101.693.2
China55.544.350.546.143.044.862.466.8
France71.073.095.193.599.7107.5103.794.0
Germany48.053.467.370.981.887.488.277.4
Hong Kong, China32.226.332.031.231.837.140.845.3
India67.753.576.185.195.6103.1104.2100.9
Indonesia43.251.051.363.172.182.285.075.7
Italy59.861.279.786.198.6109.7105.697.1
Japan38.739.938.243.746.856.757.560.8
Mexico99.594.5106.0111.1110.5108.8113.0108.7
Russia80.480.574.846.749.755.153.652.0
Singapore36.544.356.765.478.284.786.778.9
South Africa44.762.372.875.478.980.280.178.8
Spain64.571.985.889.895.298.895.586.9
Thailand35.943.549.658.971.883.186.077.2
Turkey81.270.586.797.9104.3111.0115.195.9
U.S.85.578.495.798.4102.1100.9103.398.8
United Arab Emirates80.077.298.497.6102.3112.8105.595.8
United Kingdom58.171.686.791.096.299.998.595.1

Aviation Scores by Country

Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022
Argentina60.452.863.168.675.373.276.375.4
Australia54.548.364.080.588.880.386.281.7
Brazil102.383.7101.5100.0108.5106.691.789.9
Canada53.749.163.673.475.479.481.977.5
China34.926.229.626.224.026.534.338.6
France58.062.276.479.385.491.189.885.5
Germany48.348.757.264.374.278.179.471.9
Hong Kong, China13.48.08.110.012.012.914.514.9
India54.959.776.186.992.2101.899.194.6
Indonesia23.525.927.638.146.951.254.845.9
Italy54.362.177.784.9101.2110.5107.6102.4
Japan30.226.226.533.037.140.343.344.2
Mexico81.790.397.8100.5100.697.599.199.5
Russia87.687.384.964.859.772.280.576.1
Singapore27.022.929.240.952.760.365.854.7
South Africa44.956.264.168.571.474.775.074.5
Spain65.073.185.788.897.199.396.993.0
Thailand25.628.433.238.947.257.362.758.9
Turkey84.678.886.686.7100.1105.5102.093.1
U.S.77.070.083.288.991.690.393.589.4
United Arab Emirates65.569.384.185.589.297.094.993.8
United Kingdom50.562.176.581.887.289.689.086.0

Aviation contributes 37.5% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = pre-pandemic level.

Hotel Scores by Country

Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022
Argentina72.767.376.196.6123.1115.4125.1119.2
Australia54.454.367.583.993.797.3104.491.8
Brazil96.478.291.495.7107.4105.9113.9101.7
Canada63.754.571.595.5105.6110.3120.0106.2
China61.452.464.646.444.455.386.089.4
France57.470.489.797.6112.0122.1124.5101.9
Germany35.148.964.975.693.6101.5106.786.7
Hong Kong, China42.736.949.937.540.149.152.260.6
India83.547.581.294.2113.8126.0124.1113.1
Indonesia61.972.264.789.8101.7121.1122.3102.7
Italy50.158.881.392.0107.6123.4119.9101.1
Japan35.664.758.961.062.878.275.475.5
Mexico96.389.7105.7123.8129.7129.5135.1120.7
Russia74.374.866.31.418.322.011.111.9
Singapore39.158.176.491.6103.8105.5101.894.7
South Africa26.865.277.078.886.282.985.176.5
Spain53.661.379.189.9101.1108.5103.984.6
Thailand41.158.262.176.9101.3116.9114.690.3
Turkey81.763.891.7118.7123.8138.2151.2104.5
U.S.85.979.695.5103.0112.4115.1114.7108.2
United Arab Emirates95.768.294.0100.3111.2130.3113.587.3
United Kingdom54.261.780.090.9100.6106.4107.2102.1

Hotels contributes 32.5% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = pre-pandemic level.

Vacation Rental Scores by Country

Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022
Argentina118.8133.8138.8138.7137.8136.9139.0
Australia106.8140.8140.1134.9135.3134.8140.9136.5
Brazil70.7114.0116.9113.7116.1110.8106.3112.3
Canada93.0104.3113.2124.9122.3122.6123.6122.5
China124.1119.9117.0115.0108.9112.6112.6116.7
France124.7105.6139.8129.1120.2126.6125.2124.3
Germany75.1101.8104.296.192.596.698.498.0
Hong Kong, China51.562.657.357.156.862.667.871.0
India75.396.694.298.199.3100.8101.4104.2
Indonesia45.1120.097.873.473.882.978.583.4
Italy83.8108.0109.4116.1107.3117.4116.0116.3
Japan55.765.257.857.456.960.759.961.6
Mexico166.2132.2133.9136.6122.4123.0123.0118.3
Russia73.5111.192.6119.2111.1101.391.891.1
Singapore48.7100.993.991.992.493.094.693.3
South Africa72.987.394.498.9101.099.694.0102.3
Spain81.4119.6119.4131.0110.5105.7108.2106.1
Thailand45.884.678.780.982.786.489.195.7
Turkey66.1101.999.7109.3103.0105.296.6103.5
U.S.112.3119.9118.4115.2113.1106.0111.2109.3
United Arab Emirates80.0123.8126.2130.2116.3123.4116.1124.0
United Kingdom109.2133.9132.1134.0139.4134.4129.6127.7

Vacation Rentals contributes 10% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = pre-pandemic level. 2021 VR data for Argentina missing.

Car Rental Scores by Country

Dec 2021Jan 2022Feb 2022Mar 2022Apr 2022May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022
Argentina72.073.8112.2103.7115.2114.6111.4102.5
Australia29.365.286.393.1104.0106.7109.8109.6
Brazil72.092.2110.5105.0109.0111.3109.8105.1
Canada53.375.4110.0112.5116.6117.3115.4108.3
China29.329.441.952.852.743.148.556.1
France72.0115.1150.2120.1117.9117.0103.297.3
Germany48.066.488.280.283.185.581.278.8
Hong Kong, China28.836.146.555.758.066.076.282.9
India28.841.461.569.878.883.592.596.6
Indonesia28.841.461.569.878.883.592.596.6
Italy72.261.780.374.977.280.079.379.7
Japan28.839.646.661.167.086.090.288.9
Mexico72.2118.8128.9115.8114.6119.7115.2114.2
Russia53.874.674.674.674.674.674.674.6
Singapore28.856.778.390.0115.3114.9114.8116.5
South Africa53.881.1110.096.092.595.197.998.9
Spain72.274.291.777.979.183.283.282.4
Thailand28.855.673.274.580.285.493.797.7
Turkey72.274.792.684.590.378.784.791.3
U.S.66.893.0123.5111.3111.1115.2113.4110.8
United Arab Emirates53.8102.5137.5111.2117.2116.9117.9111.8
United Kingdom47.594.2115.3103.4100.0102.0101.7100.2

Car Rental contributes 15% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = pre-pandemic level.

Disclaimer: All rights reserved; content based on data provided by Amadeus, Aviasales, Beyond, CarTrawler, Cendyn, Collinson, Criteo, Duetto, ForwardKeys (Forward Data SL), Hotelbeds, Key Data Dashboard, OAG, Onyx CenterSource, OTA Insight, RateGain, Shiji Group, Skyscanner, Sojern, Transparent, TrustYou. The content and the data provided in this document are for your information and internal use only. The content is provided “as is” without any warranty as to accuracy, completeness, satisfactory quality or fitness for any particular purpose. It is strictly forbidden to extract, reproduce, republish or publicly display any content included in this document without the prior written authorisation of Skift Research. If you wish to use any of this content or similar data, please contact Skift Research for more information.