A Deep Dive Into Airbnb 2018: Tackling Roadblocks on the Runway

Report Overview

Airbnb revolutionized, arguably, the entire accommodations industry and the way people think about travel stays. Today, the company has over 5 million listings in 81,000 cities across 191 countries and what we estimate to be a 14% market share of alternative accommodations bookings. At the same time, the company continues to expand and disrupt other segments, entering tours and activities, boutique hotels, restaurant reservations, even licensing its name in the running of apartment buildings. In this report, we assess a few key areas of focus and controversy for the company: increasing regulation, the company’s potential impact on local housing markets, and the company’s evolving role in hotels and accommodation distribution. As the company heads towards a potential IPO in 2019, Airbnb clearly has a lot of work to do. Nevertheless, the company’s ability to shift and disrupt the way the industry thinks about accommodation and travel is a force to be reckoned with, and its economic and financial impact can no longer be ignored.

What You'll Learn From This Report

• An overview of Airbnb by the numbers: Listings, guest arrivals, bookings, and revenues

• A comparison of Airbnb and peers in the travel industry: Listings, sales, and valuation

• A barometer analysis of the regulatory environment in 10 of Airbnb’s key markets

• The total economic benefit of Airbnb in 10 of the company’s key markets

• An analysis probing the impact of Airbnb on housing and rent prices in 50 U.S. zip codes

• An assessment of Airbnb’s impact to hotel performance: An opportunity for hotels

• A description of other areas of strength for the company

• A complete Airbnb revenue model

• Skift Research forecasts for bookings, sales, earnings, and valuation

• Company risks

Executive Summary

Airbnb may have started as a couple guys renting out their air mattresses for some extra cash, but the company has revolutionized, arguably, the entire accommodations industry and the way people think about travel stays.

Today, Airbnb has over 5 million listings in 81,000 cities across 191 countries. Four hundred million people have stayed in an Airbnb, and more than 2 million stay in an Airbnb every night. Based on Morningstar’s estimate of an $150 billion alternative accommodations industry and our estimate of Airbnb’s gross bookings, Airbnb already has a 14% market share of bookings in the alternative accommodations space.

And the company isn’t stopping there. Airbnb has 15,000 Experiences in 1,000 cities worldwide. We forecast the company will reach 30,000 by the end of this year, as well as have 40,000 boutique hotel listings on the platform. The company is also getting into restaurant bookings through its partnership with Resy and is lending its name to apartment developments like Niido. Who knows where the company will go next.

However, fears getting the best of stakeholders and major opponents critiquing Airbnb’s ability to see true success come from three key areas: increasing regulation, the company’s potential impact on local housing markets and the traditional hotel sector, and the company’s evolving role in hospitality and accommodation distribution. In this report, we attack all three areas. We assess the regulatory environments and economic benefits of key Airbnb markets, perform an analysis to evaluate the impact Airbnb is having on 10 U.S. markets, and provide our views on Airbnb’s impact on hotels and the future of distribution.

As the company heads toward a potential IPO in 2019, we hope our analyses provide a framework and better lens through which to view Airbnb. Airbnb may have a lot of work to do, and the road ahead will be a difficult one, but Airbnb’s ability to shift and disrupt the way the industry thinks about accommodation and travel is a force to be reckoned with, and its economic and financial impact can no longer be ignored.

Company Overview

In this section, we provide an overview of Airbnb’s business model, how the company has grown tremendously over its short history, and how the company stacks up against peers, competitors, and other players in the travel industry.

How Airbnb Makes Money

Airbnb operates under a commission-based business model, earning fees by facilitating travel-related reservations made on its website and app. The company currently generates revenue via three products in our mind: Homes, Experiences, Restaurants, and Hotels.

Home Bookings. Airbnb charges both hosts and guests service fees for bookings made for one of the more than 5 million home listings available on the Airbnb platform. Hosts are generally charged 3% of the booking subtotal which is calculated as the nightly rate plus cleaning costs and additional guest fees, if applicable, but excludes Airbnb fees and taxes. The commission is higher for hosts in Italy and for those with a Super Strict cancellation policy.

Guests are charged a service fee that ranges between 0% and 20% of the booking subtotal (defined above). The percentage is based on numerous factors, including the type of listing, the reservation subtotal, and the length of stay. The Airbnb website indicates the service fee percentage gets lower as the reservation cost gets higher.

In addition, it’s worth mentioning that the company acquired Luxury Retreats, a luxury villa rentals and vacation rentals company, in early 2017. Luxury Retreats operates in a similar way, but commission rates are in the 20 percent range.

Experience Bookings. Airbnb’s tours and activities segment provides a way for locals to offer experiences or immersions via the Airbnb platform. The company now has around 15,000 Experiences available in more than 1,000 cities worldwide. “Anyone can apply to host an experience and thousands do per week.” Nick Papas, global press secretary of Airbnb, noted. “However, as we place such a premium on the quality of experience, we accept only 30% of all applications.”

Currently, the company has a handful of categories, including Social Impact, Surfing, and Concerts, but expects to have more in the future. Papas stated that the company offers "a quality ‘managed’ marketplace; including inventory that never existed before. Rather than the same old tours, Experiences are offered by a new wave of entrepreneurs - people are quitting their desk jobs and pursuing their passions full time - who are offering travelers new and unique ways to experience communities they visit.”

Hosts are charged a 20% booking service fee based on the price that they set for their experiences or immersions. Guests currently do not pay an additional fee.

Restaurant Bookings. Since late 2017, users have been able to make restaurant reservations through the Airbnb website. The expansion follows a $13 million investment Airbnb made in Resy, a restaurant reservation app, earlier that year. According to the company, reservations can be made at 1,000+ local restaurants in 30 cities around the world such as New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Amsterdam, Paris, London, and Madrid, and links directly to Resy to complete the booking. Resy is currently at 2,000 restaurants in 160 cities, so there is definitely room for growth via the partnership.

In addition, in September 2018 Airbnb also partnered with Dutch online restaurant booking startup Formitable, thereby increasing its international presence for restaurant bookings.

Airbnb does not currently disclose how it is generating revenue from restaurant reservation bookings. Resy currently charges flat monthly fees ranging from $189 to $899 per month. Formitable charges fees ranging from €59 to €65 per month. OpenTable doesn’t charge a monthly flat fee, but requires payments of $0.25 per cover for reservations made on the restaurant’s website, Facebook, or email marketing, and $2.50 per cover for reservations from OpenTable.

Hotel Bookings: Airbnb has had boutique hotels, serviced apartments, and bed-and-breakfasts on its platform for quite some time. In August 2017, CEO Brian Chesky tweeted that the company has 16,000 boutique hotels on the platform since allowing them in November of 2016. In February 2018, Cameron Houser, Airbnb Hotels Program Manager, noted that there were 24,000 boutique hotel listings on the platform, representing 60% growth since August. That same month, Airbnb announced a technology partnership with hotel tech platform SiteMinder, allowing SiteMinder’s 28,000 hotels the ability to list their properties on Airbnb should they choose to.

We expect the basics of the business model for hotels looks similar to that of the alternative accommodations business (a combination host and guest fees). While boutique hotels are likely a small segment for the company (We forecast the company now has around 35,000 listings from boutique hotels, which is about 0.8% of its total listings at 5,000,000), the segment will likely continue to grow as smaller hotels look for more ways to bring their distribution costs down and target the right consumers. Airbnb’s potential impact for hotels is discussed in more detail later in this report.

Airbnb by the Numbers

We provide a look back at where Airbnb has been and an overview of the company’s tremendous growth over the past 10 years. We note that, because Airbnb is not a public company, we had to build a model based on numerous Airbnb press releases and announcements, data available on the Airbnb website, media and news articles available publicly online citing interviews with Airbnb stakeholders or company representatives, as well as our own estimates. Thus, the tables and charts below should be considered estimates and not public disclosures.

Skift Research's complete Airbnb model is available later in this report along with our future estimates and expectations for revenue, earnings, and company valuation.

Travelers have been flocking to stay in Airbnbs since 2008 with the platform hosting more than 400 million guest arrivals in its history. From around 1 million guest arrivals in 2011 to around 125 million guest arrivals in 2017, arrivals have grown at a 124% six-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). We estimate that the company has been seeing average growth of almost 140% over the past six years.

We estimate Airbnb’s guests booked over 200 million nights in 2017 and over 500 million in the history of the company. We forecast slightly more than 100% growth, on average, for the past six years, or a 94% six-year CAGR. We expect stay lengths per guest arrival have been decreasing over time (from in the four-day range to in the two-day range), as travelers have gotten used to using the platform for non-lengthy leisure vacation trips.

As a result, we estimate that more than $20 billion in gross bookings were made on the platform in 2017 (assuming an average nightly rate of $100). On an estimated take rate of 13%, Airbnb took home more than $2.6 billion in revenues from its homesharing platform, which corroborates numbers reported by Bloomberg in February 2018. Our estimates include six-year CAGRs of 94% for both gross bookings and revenue.

Airbnb’s Incredible Flight Path to a $31 Billion Valuation

Corresponding with tremendous growth in its business, Airbnb has been racking up quite a valuation, coming in at $31 billion most recently. The company has raised well over $4 billion in capital from various sources, based on publicly disclosed filings (meaning this number could be greater).

How Does Airbnb Stack Up Versus Peers?

Airbnb outpaces all hotel companies in terms of number of listings, but is far behind online travel agencies (OTAs).

With over 5 million listings, Airbnb far outpaces hotel companies in terms of number of listings. Marriott is the closest behind with 1.3 million rooms. The company also beats out competitor HomeAway, but comes in slightly below Booking.com’s number of alternative accommodations listings.

Nevertheless, when it comes to thinking about distribution providers, Airbnb is a small fish in a big pond. Booking.com has around 30 million listings (including its alternative accommodations listings), and we estimate Expedia’s number of total listings at around 43 million (based on the ratio of listings per property for Booking and including HomeAway).

The chart below includes the most recently available number of listings, units, and rooms as defined by each company.

Airbnb already generates more revenue than many hotels and online travel platforms, but there is room for growth.

Airbnb ranks seventh in terms of revenue among competing companies that had revenue data publicly available (see below). This means that Airbnb is generating lower revenue per listing than certain hotel companies, thus representing an opportunity for growth. As Airbnb works to improve the quality and consistency of its listings (and perhaps raises commission in time), guests will likely be willing to pay more for a stay. In addition, Airbnb has a lower-budget type ADR, which will only increase as they move more higher end with increasing, consistent, high-quality product. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that, because Airbnb’s occupancy rate is much lower than that of hotels (given the
nature of the home-sharing model), the revenue per listing will likely never quite reach that of hotels on average.

Airbnb has some of the lowest total fees charged out of accommodations marketplaces.

Taking a look at the commission fees charged by accommodations providers or marketplaces, Airbnb offers some of the lowest of the bunch, particularly when it comes to host fees, though the fees it charges guests are pretty high. Later in this report, we discuss how Airbnb represents an opportunity for hotel owners to bring their distribution costs down. A hotelier could theoretically get charged 3% per transaction on Airbnb, whereas the online travel agencies charge hotels around 15% and it can be dramatically higher for independent hotels. Airbnb creates more competition in the distribution space, which should reduce the commission rates charged to all hotels overall, likely benefiting all hotel owners.

Airbnb has one of the largest valuations in the travel industry.

Based on its latest funding round, Airbnb is coming in at a whopping $31 billion valuation. Comparing it to other public company valuations in the travel industry (as measured by market capitalization), Airbnb has one of the largest valuations in the industry, behind only Marriott and Booking Holdings. In the chart below, we also provide some other comparable companies such as online marketplaces eBay and Grubhub, another private sharing economy company, Uber, and a couple timeshare companies.

Here we show total funding raised relative to valuation for Airbnb as well as other private, but popular, companies. Airbnb’s valuation is seven times the amount of capital it has raised, whereas the Uber’s is 3X, Lyft’s is 3X, and WeWork’s is 2X. Only Pinterest comes in higher at 8X. Investors’ funding rounds have driven Airbnb’s valuation higher than several private peers (other than Uber), suggesting investor expectation for considerable growth in the vacation rental space, but specifically for Airbnb (as also demonstrated in the following chart).

When it comes to the vacation rental space, funding has focused on Airbnb specifically versus other competitors. Vacation rental management company, Vacasa, recently raised $103.5 million in a Series B round and indicated that the company’s valuation doubled, without disclosing exact numbers. China competitors, Xiaozhu and Tujia, have also raised funding, but nowhere near that of Airbnb. However, September 2018 news indicated that Xiaozhu is said to be in talks with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund and other investors to raise more than $200 million in new funding.

The State of the Regulatory Environment for Airbnb

The impact of regulation on Airbnb’s growth has been a key area of concern for critics, and not without reason. In New York, for instance, rentals for fewer than 30 days are illegal unless a resident is present for a certain type of apartment building with three or more units. Airbnb is also in a legal battle against the city over a law forcing the company to share host information. Issues like these, which can cause listings to decline significantly in the market, demonstrate the power that regulations can have over the company's growth.

Obviously, Airbnb is working to diversify its product lines (Experiences, Restaurants, Hotels, etc.), but the company is also diligently working with regulators to try to set up and implement the best policies on a city by city basis. “Just two years ago, many cities either lacked clear short-term rental rules or had overly restrictive rules,” Nick Papas of Airbnb indicated. “But today, cities -- both in the U.S. and abroad -- are embracing the economic benefits of home sharing and working with Airbnb to develop new rules.”

In this section, we assess this large, inherent risk by performing a barometer analysis. We do this by assessing the regulatory environment in 10 of Airbnb’s key markets and its impact on Airbnb listings, and by calculating the positive economic impact that Airbnb is having in several important markets. The results suggest Airbnb has a lot of work to do, but completely wiping out Airbnb as an alternative for travel accommodation is not necessarily beneficial from an economic standpoint.

Regulation Barometer Analysis

We analyzed the current regulatory status for the largest 10 international cities by number of Airbnb listings (according to AirDNA data) in order to assess if regulatory changes have any impact on Airbnb listings. If recently implemented regulations were stricter and the number of Airbnb listings declined, this is a negative reflection of the company. If the opposite, it’s positive. If regulations implemented were more restrictive, but the number of Airbnb listings remained the same, we considered this neutral for the company, as it would suggest either the policy won’t be enforced or the demand far outweighs the cost of legal implications and a loosening of restrictions is likely.

Out of the 10 cities we analyzed, six have issued more restrictive homesharing policies, while four have been more open. And out of the six cities with stricter policies, four have seen significant declines in listing growth or even negative growth. This research confirms what many industry stakeholders have argued — Airbnb’s growth is being impacted by regulation, and one of the biggest hindrances to the success and development of Airbnb hinges on its ability to successfully work with governments and regulatory authorities to set appropriate regulations that allow for the sector to grow, without punishing or negatively impacting other aspects of cities (housing prices, wear and tear of cities, taxation of hotel-like buildings, etc.).

The Positive Financial and Economic Impacts of Airbnb

For all the regulatory troubles Airbnb is facing, it is worth mentioning that the company has contributed significantly to the world economy. We assessed Airbnb’s total economic impact, including host income and guest spending, as well as typical host annual earnings, according to numerous Airbnb press releases and websites, for 10 of Airbnb’s largest cities as measured by number of listings (for those cities where data was available from Airbnb).

Our analysis concludes that, for 10 of Airbnb’s largest cities, Airbnb had a total economic impact of approximately $12.3 billion. Typical hosts made approximately $3,900 per year (median number), which is not an insignificant amount for a host looking to offset mortgage payments or generate some supplemental income. On an assumed annual income of $60,000, $3.9K represents 6.5% more income.

Note: Total Economic Impact is determined by Airbnb as direct spending and indirect and induced spending according to IMPLAN analysis. Annual earnings of a typical host are defined by Airbnb as: “Median value of total income earned by host during the one-year study period. Annual earnings are presented for typical hosts.” Typical hosts are defined as “The median host for all hosts who had at least one active listing as of the start of the study period and at least one booking during the study period …Presenting the median value for all hosts who were active as of the start of the study period provides the most representative values for the Airbnb host community.”

“Every day, we hear from our host community about the ways home sharing is helping them earn important supplemental income at a time when wages are stagnating and the cost of living is on the rise” Nick Papas of Airbnb noted. “Airbnb helps hundreds of thousands of people pay the bills and serves as an important economic tool to help many afford living in increasingly expensive communities … We believe that home sharing can be a force for good in neighborhoods by creating economic opportunity for everyone.”

Regulation through appropriate taxation

Another way that Airbnb can ensure money goes back into local economies to further stimulate growth, build infrastructure, etc. is through appropriate taxation. Airbnb currently collects and remits occupancy tax in certain cities in 10 countries and the majority of states in the United States, and is the only homesharing platform to collect tourist tax on behalf of its users.

According to the company, Airbnb has raised more than $800 million in tourist taxes. In Paris and Lisbon, alone, Airbnb remitted €6.9 million and €3.8 million, respectively, for 2017. “We have partnered with more than 500 governments to collect taxes, develop regulatory frameworks that create long-term stability for our business and provide cities the tools they need to implement new rules,” Paps indicated.

We do realize, however, that forming these agreements can be easier said than done - cities are hesitant to sign agreements that essentially mean they’re legalizing short-term rentals. That’s why cities such as New York have refused to set up such an arrangement. In August 2018, Airbnb donated $10 million to charities to symbolize the city and state tax revenues that could be generated if short-term rentals were allowed ($10 million was to symbolize one month of estimated tax revenues out of $100 million estimated for one year).

Social and Environmental impact

Airbnb is also working on a number of initiatives to demonstrate its benefits and to give back to society. For instance, there are a number of studies indicating that staying in Airbnbs is environmentally friendly. A study from Airbnb indicated that “88% of Airbnb hosts around the world incorporate green practices into hosting, such as using green cleaning products, providing recycling, encouraging guests to use public transportation, and installing solar panels.” In addition, a 2018 analysis using the Cleantech model found that when guests stayed in Airbnbs rather than hotels in 2017, Airbnb guests in Europe achieved energy savings equal to that of 826,000 homes, reduced water usage equal to 13,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions equal to 2.4 million cars.

In addition, the company has launched groups like the Airbnb Sustainability Advisory Board in 2017 to help develop environmental partnerships and initiatives and the Office of Healthy Tourism in 2018, an initiative to drive authentic and sustainable tourism in countries and cities around the world. According to Nick Papas at Airbnb:

“Airbnb is uniquely positioned to help governments deliver on healthy tourism:

• We are leveraging our world-class marketing team to to promote destinations, combating over tourism and supporting destinations that want more visitors.
• We are undertaking partnerships in emerging destinations to support inclusive tourism.
• We are expanding our partnerships and efforts around major-events to support sustainable tourism.”

“In May of last year, we updated our Policy Tool Chest to provide lawmakers with 21st-century accountability tools to help cities enact regulatory frameworks to meet their individual needs, promote the rapid expansion of tax collection and foster sustainable tourism.” Papas went on to say. “We look forward to continuing our efforts to be good partners with cities and will work with any city that welcomes us to the table.”

We expect Airbnb will continue to work with policy makers and governmental organizations around the world to ensure safe, law-abiding business practices, as well as further implement initiatives that help contribute to developing economies around the world. Papas indicated, “we have found that the most effective regulations we’ve seen globally are those that regulate the entire short-term rental industry, not just one company or platform, and provide cities the tools they need to enforce the rules.”

Assessing Airbnb’s Potential Impact on Housing

Critics of Airbnb have highlighted issues of increases in short-term rental supply causing housing prices and rental rates to skyrocket, thereby negatively impacting affordability. Homeowners may be more willing to put their properties on the Airbnb platform if they are able to get a higher nightly rate than they would from an otherwise normal monthly rental. As a result, regulators, critics, the media, and others have indicated that locals are being forced to move out of homes that may have been in their families for generations in search of cheaper rents.

Many European destinations are claiming to be having these issues (Lisbonand Barcelona come to mind), but certain markets, such as Germany, are also indicating they have seen no significant impact on housing as a result of Airbnb.

Skift Research set off to assess trends in the U.S. for ourselves and see if there is a relationship between Airbnb supply and prices (using estimated nightly rates (ADRs)) and housing and rental prices.

Airbnb and Housing Correlation Analysis

In order to better understand what impact Airbnb is having on the housing market, we set up a simplistic correlation and r-square analysis to assess Airbnb’s relationship or impact on housing prices. We note that this analysis is a simple two-variable correlation that doesn’t consider other factors that may (and most likely) be impacting results, therefore rendering our analysis without a statistically significant or meaningful conclusion. We also found that different cities had different correlations within them, rendering the city-wide averages less meaningful. We include more limitations of this analysis at the appendix.

For our analysis, we included 5 zip codes in 10 different cities. The 10 cities (Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, Portland, and Seattle) were chosen because they are large metropolitan areas, but not major ones that are typically used in other studies (i.e. New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, etc.). The 5 zip codes were chosen based on A) there being the largest amount of Airbnb data available per our partnership with AirDNA, and B) Zillow included the zip codes in their databases. We analyzed the cities at the zip code level to try limit other external factors and to make comparisons as apples-to-apples as possible.

Data sets included:

• Home Prices: We used Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is “a smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of the median estimated home value across a given region and housing type. It is a dollar-denominated alternative to repeat-sales indices.”
• Rental Prices: We used Zillow’s Rent Index (ZRI), which is “a smoothed measure of the median estimated market rate rent across a given region and housing type. ZRI is a dollar-denominated alternative to repeat-rent indices.”
• Airbnb Inventory: AirDNA provided Skift Research with monthly available listings (Entire Home, Private Room, and Shared Room) as far back as possible, which was October 2014. AirDNA defines available listings as “The count of Airbnb listings that were advertised for rent during the month or had a booked day in the month.”
• Airbnb Average Nightly Rate (ADR): AirDNA provided Skift Research with estimated ADR data as far back as possible, which was October 2014. AirDNA defines ADR as “The Average Daily Rate charged per booked entire place listing. ADR includes cleaning fees but not other Airbnb service fees or taxes.” AirDNA estimates the ADR based on an algorithm for assessing changes in the calendar of a listing, assuming which are bookings versus changes in availability from the host, and calculates an ADR based on the advertised daily rate plus a cleaning fee. The company’s methodology is available online.

Using these data sets, we calculated the correlation and r-square (the square of the correlation, which helps explain what proportion of changes in the dependent variable can be explained by changes in the independent variable) for four different pairings:

• Growth in home prices versus growth in Airbnb inventory
• Growth in home prices versus growth in Airbnb ADRs
• Growth in rent prices versus growth in Airbnb inventory
• Growth in rent prices versus growth in Airbnb ADRs

We also did the same analyses using 12-month moving average growth rates for Airbnb inventory and ADRs so as to smooth the data for large swings in growth rates. Airbnb can be very choppy and volatile, spiking for an city event, festival, or certain seasonal time periods. It likely makes more sense to consider the 12-month moving average versus housing prices, as the overall housing market is likely to be less swayed by short-term spikes in Airbnb listings. On the other hand, rental rates, which reset monthly, may be more swayed by volatile changes in Airbnb data. We include both smoothed and unsmoothed data for comparison purposes.

At an aggregate level, our analyses of 5 zip codes within 10 cities implied a somewhat weak correlation between Airbnb inventory or prices and housing and rental prices. The average correlation for all six analyses was 0.21 and the average r-square was 29%. While this would suggest that growth in housing and rental prices has a positive correlation with Airbnb listings and nightly rates of 21%, we can’t assume changes in the Airbnb supply in the market are responsible for influencing housing prices. A deeper analysis is required to see if there is a causal relationship between the two.

In the chart below, we include the correlations and r-square relationships by city (the average of the five zip codes). Here we see clear variations city by city. For instance, for Atlanta and Portland, there are significant positive correlations between home pricing and 12-month moving Airbnb listings, and the correlations for Boston and Minneapolis are both very weak. This is a clear indication that the impact of Airbnb on house pricing is a local-level question, with each geography having its own intricacies.

We also note a weak correlation does not mean Airbnb is not impacting housing, and a strong correlation does not mean Airbnb is impacting housing. External factors such as unemployment, population growth, employment growth, and tourism growth, could all be impacting the trend. For a better conclusion, more data and more variables would need to be considered in a more detailed regression analysis.

In conclusion, a deeper local-level analysis with more data and controlling for more factors associated with housing and rental prices and factors associated with Airbnb listings is needed to truly investigate if Airbnb is having a real impact.

We note Airbnb appears to be very committed to working with cities to implement the appropriate rules and regulations. “From the beginning, we recognized that every short-term rental platform has a responsibility to be good partners with cities and ensure they have the tools they need to enforce their rules and to ensure the housing stock is not being impacted by short-term rentals.” Nick Papas of Airbnb stated. “At Airbnb, we take this responsibility seriously and have worked with hundreds of governments on rules that are clear and enforceable.”

This analysis is something that Skift Research will continue to monitor and will look to update in more detail in the future. Please see the Appendix for the correlation analyses of all the included zip codes as well as a detailed explanations of data limitations.

Assessing Airbnb’s Potential Impact on Hotel Performance

Skift Research believes that Airbnb’s direct impact on the financial performance of the hotel industry has been limited to date. In fact, we believe Airbnb could be a positive for hotels as it puts pricing pressure on booking commissions, which we discuss in detail in this section.

In our view, the number of Airbnb listings that are truly comparable, essentially hotel equivalents, is far less than the overall supply. There is also the argument that Airbnb’s customers are not the same as hotel customers. What's more, several analyses have even indicated there has been no impact to performance. Nevertheless, as Airbnb continues to expand its hotel-like and business-travel offerings, via Airbnb Plus, it is possible that we will begin to see core business travelers dipping more and more into the Airbnb accommodations pool. Regardless, we think Airbnb competes more from a distribution standpoint with vacation rental and online travel agency players.

It is not a direct competitor with major hotel brands

While Airbnb offers an alternative place for travelers to stay, not all Airbnbs can be considered hotel equivalents. For one, there are over 36,000 listings that are RVs, yurts, islands, tiny houses, boats, treehouses, igloos, and other sorts of accommodations, making up 1% of Airbnb’s total supply, that a guest would not likely consider versus a hotel room equivalent.

The majority of Airbnb supply is simply not competitive with hotel supply. Approximately 3 million Airbnb listings out of the total more than 5 million are instantly bookable, but that doesn't mean they necessarily have the consistency and standard qualities of a hotel room. Airbnb Plus, which are verified for quality and consistency and come with a standard set of amenities (thus making them somewhat like a hotel room), currently consists of only about 2,000 listings (although this number, which is as of March 2018, has likely moved up somewhat). The company expects to have 75,000 by the end of 2018. The number of listings also doesn’t take into account Airbnb availability, as many listings are not consistently available 365 days a year (like most hotel rooms), thereby limiting their usage for business travelers who need consistent inventory.

In addition, keep in mind that business or corporate travelers are a crucial segment for the hotel industry. Over one-third of hotel revenues come from business travelers.

Airbnb has stated that Airbnb for Work makes up 15% of Airbnb trips. We do note that it is likely difficult to estimate guests’ reasons for staying in Airbnbs as their travel could be a mixture of both work and leisure. Airbnb has indicated that 700,000 organizations have had employees sign up and book with Airbnb for Work, with more than 275,000 of those are directly engaged with Airbnb to help manage travel. Nevertheless, Airbnb gave no indication as to size of these companies.

We also note that the creation of Airbnb supply is sometimes just a matter of creating opportunities for cities to host big events they otherwise couldn’t and for hosts to generate supplemental income as a result. “A study by The World Economic Forum after the 2016 Summer Games in Rio de Janeiro reported that the city would have needed to build 257 hotels in order to have provided enough rooms to accommodate the surge of Games attendees who stayed on Airbnb,” highlighted Papas.

Analyses of Compression Nights Have Suggested No Impact

Critics originally believed that hotel performance would come under pressure from Airbnb on high occupancy nights, which are referred to as compression nights. On compression nights, when occupancies are typically above 95%, hotels are generally able to charge higher prices relative to other nights. Consider a city such as Nashville. On normal occupancy nights, Airbnb likely isn’t taking demand away from hotels. However, when a major event or convention comes to town, say the Country Music Awards, occupancies sky rocket. This should be a time where hotels can charge a higher rate to consumers because demand outweighs supply. However, with Airbnb entering the market, people could list their homes on Airbnb at very discounted rates, creating “shadow supply” undercutting hotels and causing hotels to have to discount their prices just to compete.

However, the interesting thing is that various analyses thus far have shown that there hasn’t been much of an impact to average daily rate premiums or occupancy premiums on compression nights that can be directly tied to Airbnb. And if there is, it’s more likely related to market dynamics or trends in the cycle than anything to do with Airbnb.

One such analysis came from Morgan Stanley, whose equity research analysts recently published a report indicating that, year to date, the number of compression, or high-demand, nights through August 25, 2018 was up 3% versus the same period last year (173 nights for the top 25 U.S. markets, versus 168 in 2017). In contrast, compression nights were down 13% in the same period last year.

The firm indicated that a better supply-demand environment may explain the improvement in compression nights as well as increasing regulation of short-term rentals in major cities. Whatever the reason, Airbnb is not having an explicit negative impact on hotel performance currently.

What do the hotels think?

We offer a few different viewpoints of public hotel company management teams on Airbnb from recent analyst calls.

But could it have an impact on hotel performance?

For now, the answer to this question is likely limited. There may only be an impact on high occupancy nights. As Airbnb continues to improve its quality and consistency, more travelers may turn to Airbnb over hotels. The company has a goal of having 75,000 Airbnb Plus listings by the end of 2018, which we estimate would make up 1.4% of total Airbnb supply (based on our forecast of 5.5 million listings by the end of 2018).

And while customer adoption of vacation rentals has been increasing, based on Skift Research survey work, satisfaction with stays is far from suggesting travelers are ready to stop staying in hotels.

More than anything, we believe Airbnb represents more of a potential benefit for and partner to hotels. Airbnb creates an opportunity for hotel owners, particularly of independent and boutique hotels, to bring their distribution costs down. As we discussed earlier, Airbnb has lower commissions for hosts than other sites offering accommodations. Airbnb only charges hosts 3 to 5%, whereas the online travel agencies charge hotels around 15% based on our estimates, but it can be dramatically higher for independent hotels who don’t have the strength in portfolio to be able to negotiate lower rates with OTAs. Airbnb fees are also lower than most other homesharing sites as well. This creates more competition in the distribution space, which should reduce the commission rates charged to all hotels overall, benefitting all owners. From a hotel owner’s perspective — particularly for the smaller B&Bs, hotel-like properties, and independents — you have another platform you can align with for distribution rather than having to be branded or change your individuality, a sort of like a new soft brand. This should create competition among managers and franchisors and keep fees lower for independent owners. Plus, you have another way to market your property and gain access to customers that you might not otherwise have. Airbnb also lets hosts easily communicate with guests and engage with them more directly, creating an overall more enhanced guest experience than many hotel brand.com websites currently offer. Perhaps even traditional, large hotel brands may look to Airbnb one day as a way to bring distribution costs down and gain access to relevant consumers.

Skift Research believes that Airbnb likely competes more with two other sectors more than the hotel industry: the vacation rental space and the online travel agency (OTA) space. Expedia indicated during its acquisition of HomeAway that the overlap of inventory with Airbnb was 20 to 30% of listings, meaning the company is really competing for fees from properties listed on multiple vacation rental sites. Simply adding up HomeAway’s listings (approximately 1.7 million), Booking.com’s listings (approximately 5.5 million), and Airbnb’s listings (over 5 million), Airbnb makes up 41% of the total, which does not factor in any overlap. In addition, given Airbnb is starting to list more and more hotel properties on its platform, this creates competition among OTAs hoping to increase listings on their platforms.

Company Areas of Strength

We highlight a few key areas of strength that Airbnb has over competitors.

• Airbnb certainly wasn’t the first mover in the homesharing space, but the company revolutionized the standardization of homesharing listings and offered a user-friendly experience in a tech-savvy age that appealed to many consumers looking for hotel alternatives. While some thought people would never be comfortable staying in strangers’ homes, the success of homesharing via Airbnb proved otherwise.
• The company has demonstrated its ability to move seamlessly into boutique hotels, demonstrating that it can be a distribution platform for any sort of travel offering. Its partnership with SiteMinder to offer any of its hotels, as well as its low distribution costs for hosts relative to other distribution platforms further demonstrate independent and unique hotels are going to see the sense in listing on Airbnb.
• Airbnb is increasingly expanding its offerings in order to position itself as a “one-stop shop” travel platform — from homesharing to boutique hotels to tours and activities to restaurant reservations. In addition, the company has talked about expanding into flights. The company has also been very acquisitive as of late, with 11 acquisitions and investments disclosed by Crunchbase and Pitchbook, according to Morningstar. The company’s expanded offerings, investments, and acquisitions all demonstrate its ability to move swiftly and nimbly into other areas and products.

• Airbnb was profitable in 2017 on net income as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (‘EBITDA’) with profits of $93 million. We forecast over $400 million in EBITDA. Not too many other private, high growth companies can demonstrate the same, or even as strong of a focus on the bottom line as Airbnb.
• Airbnb has and continues to be used as a force for good. Whether it is helping hosts earn supplemental income or guest participating in Social Impact Experiences, it cannot be denied that Airbnb is focused on creating and developing a better world through travel. “We continue to see how short-term rentals are helping cities host big events ... by expanding lodging capacity during these big moments.” Papas highlighted. “During the NCAA basketball championship in San Antonio, Airbnb generated $2.4 million in economic activity throughout the city, at Lollapalooza this year, Chicago hosts earned a combined $3.4 million in supplemental income, and of the 5,200 listings booked for the US Presidential Inauguration, a quarter were listed by first-time hosts seeking to capitalize on the influx of visitors.” As another example, “the Paddle with the Penguins experience was about to close and listing on Airbnb was a last desperate measure to generate some funds. They have made over $4,000 in November alone from hosting and credit Airbnb with breathing new life into the organization, the AfriOceans conservation Alliance.”

Company Model, Forecasts, and Valuation

Here we provide Skift Research’s complete Airbnb revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) model along with our future estimates and expectations for revenue, earnings, and company valuation.

We note that because Airbnb is not a public company, we had to build a model based on numerous Airbnb press releases and announcements, data available on the Airbnb website, media and news articles available publicly online citing interviews with Airbnb stakeholders or company representatives, as well as our own estimates. Thus, the tables and charts below should be considered estimates and not public disclosures.

We assume restaurants is folded into experiences, boutique hotels begin to be broken out in 2017, and that there will be no expansion into transportation for the time being. Assume dollar figures are in millions unless otherwise stated or are an average nightly rate (Alternative Accommodations and Boutique Hotels) or an average cost (Experiences).

Based on our estimates, we forecast Airbnb will achieve revenues of $4.4 billion, $6.2 billion, and $8.1 billion in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. In terms of EBITDA, we forecast $929 million, $1.6 billion, and $2.5 billion for 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively.

Airbnb is potentially an almost $50 billion company.

And what of Airbnb’s $31 billion valuation? At $31 billion, our estimate of $2.6 billion in revenues for 2017 implies a revenue multiple (price to sales, or market cap to revenues) of 12.1X (‘12.1 times’).

A forward looking multiple should be inherently lower than 12.1X (Assuming future growth in revenues on the same valuation implies an inevitably lower multiple). We provide a sensitivity table below assuming a range of revenue multiples from 5X (the average revenue multiple for current publicly traded travel peers) to 11X. These multiples, using our 2018 revenue forecast of $4.5 billion, pegs Airbnb at a valuation of $22 billion to $50 billion, with a median valuation of $35 billion. We note the valuation could be higher, given our forecasts are relatively conservative, assuming no unreasonably accelerated growth in any one segment, or expansion into other segments. We note any changes in assumptions could significantly swing results.

Company Risks

• Loyalty program has been slow to start. Interestingly, while many individuals from the company have stated that Airbnb’s community is very loyal, creating a program to suit guests’ needs has been easier said than done. Greg Greeley, president of Homes at Airbnb, was hired to oversee Airbnb Plus, Airbnb Collections, and the Superhost/Superguest programs after previously working at Amazon and helping to develop the popular Amazon Prime membership program. Since then the company has conducted research and developed a pilot program, but  “... decided that it wasn’t differentiated enough, we didn’t have enough community involvement for us to launch it,” he told the audience at Skift Global Forum in October 2018. “So we’re actually back to the drawing board. We have nothing else to share on that, but I can tell you the team is waking up every day thinking about how we can have a great Superguest program for those loyal guests that are asking for it."
• Niido response has been less than stellar. Residents of both Florida-based and Tennessee-based Niido projects have felt blindsided by Newgard Development Group turning their luxury apartment complexes essentially into hotels by informing them that they would not only allow, but encourage, tenants to rent out their units on Airbnb. Niido/Newgard collects a 25% commission when tenants rent out their properties, and the complexes feature hotel-like services such as a front desk concierge or agent. Skift Hospitality Editor Deanna Ting interviewed several residents of the Nashville property, the Olmsted, to get their views on the announcement. “My concerns are mainly regarding the transient nature of my community that will likely occur through an influx of Airbnb units and, of course, safety,” said resident Cailin Cassidy. “How am I expected to feel safe in my home while strangers rotate daily?” “They haven’t just taken over a building,” resident Michelle Bellamoré said. “They’ve taken people’s lives into their hands now and disrupted a community. It’s one thing to build or create a building with this model, but to go into an almost full community with the opposite business model is just so discouraging … Had this been a Niido from the start, I would have never rented an apartment here.”
• Is Airbnb having an identity crisis? We discussed earlier that a strength of the company is its ability to increasingly expand its offerings in order to position itself “one-stop shop” travel platform — from homesharing to boutique hotels to tours and activities to restaurant reservations. Nevertheless, there is a risk that Airbnb will get too far ahead of itself, losing sight of its key area of expertise (homesharing) and spread itself too thin without being truly successful at any one given thing. After acquiring Luxury Retreats in 2017, the company had plans to launch ‘Beyond by Airbnb,’ a brand for the highest-tier of luxury travelers in spring 2018, but the project has since stalled. The company’s expansion in China has also been less than perfect. Experiences has seen challenges. How will Airbnb be able to maintain solid relationships with one of its key assets — the host community — if it are focused on too many other things?
• Going it alone in China. After pulling out of a potential merger with Tujia in early 2017, Airbnb has been going it alone in the highly regulated, fiercely competitive market of China. The company apparently also considered Xiaozhu as a potential target in 2016. The company is expected to lose about $20 million in 2018 on the China business and faces challenges with regulations being done and changed regularly at the local or provincial level. Many companies have taken up a local partner to help navigate the Chinese market (Such as Marriott’s partnership with Alibaba), and Airbnb going it alone may prove a costly and risky endeavor in the long run. We do note, however, that, as of May 2018, Airbnb had apparently more than doubled the number of Chinese guests staying at Airbnb properties and had boosted listings in China by 125% to 200,000 versus a year before.
• Airbnb for Work adoption has been slow. While the company has indicated growth of 3X from 2015 to 2016 as well as 2016 to 2017, it’s off a low base, as Airbnb for Work still only makes up approximately 15% of bookings. Many companies simply won’t even allow employees to stay at Airbnb properties while traveling for work for safety and security reasons. Airbnb has done a lot to work on the quality and consistency of its properties (Airbnb Plus) to appeal to more corporate travelers, but we think it has a long way to go. Given a large portion of travel spend is done by business travelers, getting this right will be critical to Airbnb’s success.
• Success for Airbnb Experiences may be challenging. The tours and activities space is very fragmented and very much an offline industry. Part of Airbnb’s success in this segment will be dependent on the company’s ability to change the way travelers book experiences, which is typically only once they are in a destination based on local recommendations, rather than in advance based on what Airbnb’s platform suggests they do. Other peer-to-peer platforms Gidsy and iGottaGuide were acquired by GetYourGuide and effectively dissolved and closed in 2013, demonstrating the challenges of being peer-to-peer in the tours and activities space. See our research report The State of Tours and Activities 2018 for more detail. That being said, Experiences offers diversification not only for the company, but also for hosts wary of regulation and looking to expand their offerings. “Some hosts are on track to earn as much as $800,000 this year [from doing Experiences], … just by sharing their passion and time.” Papas indicated “As we move forward, we view Experiences as being similar to Netflix for offline entertainment - our biggest long-term competitors will be traditional entertainment and sitting on your couch.

Appendix

Correlations and r-square relationships for each individual zip code included in our housing impact analysis are
provided in tables below.

Limitations of Our Analysis Assessing Airbnb’s Potential Impact on Housing

• Very limited Airbnb data was available to conduct this analysis. AirDNA only had data back to October 2014, and when using 12-month moving averages to smooth the data, this cuts the data down even more. Correlation and r-square analyses are better served with a significant amount of data in order to have statistically significant results.
• This analysis was done using simply growth rates on housing prices, housing rents, Airbnb inventory, and Airbnb prices (ADRs). It does not take into account cost of ownership, additional costs associated with renting on Airbnb, or any additional fees that would potentially change results.
• It is also a simple two variable analysis that doesn’t take into account external factors that may also be influencing results such as unemployment, population growth, business industry growth, tourism growth, and other possible idiosyncratic market dynamics.
• Just because a causal effect isn’t showing up in our data analysis does not imply that individual cases in these zip codes have not been impacted by the growth, development, and legitimization of the short-term rental market.

Further Reading