Skift Global Travel Economy Outlook 2020

by Seth Borko and Wouter Geerts + Skift Team - Dec 2019

Skift Research Take

We head into 2020 with more question marks than any year of this cycle. Risks are rising and the global economy is slowing. But, crucially, we are still growing and our base case forecast travel growth to continue next year.

Report Overview

What’s top of mind for Skift Research heading in 2020? Be prepared but don’t panic.

We forecast another good year for international tourism flows in 2020. After what we estimate to be 1.3 billion international tourism departures in 2019, we expect about 40 million new trips in 2020, growing the total by 3% to 1.34 billion.

Across the board in hospitality, online travel, and airlines, we anticipate further expansion throughout 2020, though key metrics are slowing, both as a result of a step down in economic growth and due to changing consumer tastes.

Downside risks are still ever present, perhaps most importantly, escalating trade wars across many regions. This could lead to a decoupling of growth where some regions slow more dramatically as others accelerate.

What You'll Learn From This Report

  • Global economic growth forecasts
  • International arrivals growth forecast and tourism’s contribution to economic growth expectations
  • U.S. consumer and corporate economic expectations
  • European economic growth expectations for key regions and countries
  • Sales, earnings, and key metrics growth estimates for the hotel, airline, and online travel industries