Trump 2.0 and Travel: Analyzing the Economic Impact in the U.S. and Beyond

Report Overview

Travel is the most aspirational consumer purchase out there. With secular tailwinds and a boost from post-pandemic revenge travel, our industry was flying high. But now, new policies announced by U.S. President Donald Trump may take travel out of the clouds and back down to earth. Skift Research sees four Trump 2.0 policies that will affect the travel industry: travel bans, negative sentiment, government spending cuts, and tariffs.

The first three of these are direct impacts on travel. The fourth policy, tariffs don’t have a direct impact on travel but many economists believe that higher tariffs will slow economic growth. Although it may feel like it when reading the headlines right now, a recession is not guaranteed.

Donald Trump’s prior track record suggests that he prioritizes the stock market and economic fundamentals. That gives us optimism that the worst case of a global recession can be avoided. Nonetheless, these rising risks oblige us to reduce our forecast for global travel. We now forecast 2–5% travel industry growth in 2025, down from our forecast at the start of the year for 6–9% growth.

This is a moment of record uncertainty, but there are still ways for travel companies to respond. Every crisis brings with it opportunity and there are several silver linings to take advantage of. Read on for more details on all of the above in the full report.