Report Overview

This report highlights the latest insights from the Skift Travel Health Index. The index covers travel’s performance since January 2020, up to and including March 2024.

The Skift Travel Health Index is a real-time measure of the performance of the travel industry at large, and the core verticals within it. The Index provides the travel industry with a powerful tool for strategic planning, which is of utmost importance as times remain uncertain.

Skift Research launched the Index in May 2020 as the Skift Recovery Index. At the start of 2022 we rebranded the Index as the Skift Travel Health Index, to reflect some far-ranging changes: the addition of many more indicators, additional data partners, and most importantly, our continued effort to track the industry health beyond the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

2023 brings two additional data partners into the fold. TravelgateX has started to provide pricing data for hotel stays, and Nium now provides us with transaction values for flights.

We are also thankful for the continued support of our other data partners: Amadeus, Aviasales, Beyond, CarTrawler, Cendyn, Collinson, Criteo, Duetto, Hotelbeds, Key Data Dashboard, Lighthouse, OAG, Onyx CenterSource, RateGain, Shiji Group, Skyscanner, Sojern, and TrustYou. Their data allows us to provide you with a monthly assessment of travel’s performance.

Executive Summary

The Skift Travel Health Index reveals a softening trend in global travel this month. Dropping 4 percentage points (pp) month-on-month, the index stands at 105 in March 2024. This mirrors the slowdown observed between February and March 2023. 

China continues to lead in travel growth for 2024, with Japan, Hong Kong, and Turkey following closely behind. While all travel sectors in China have shown growth compared to 2023, vacation rentals are declining below 2023 levels, indicating a preference for hotels among travelers in the country. Domestic travel remains robust in China, and international travel is steadily approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Japan registered double-digit growth of 17% year-on-year (YoY), driven by the peak Cherry Blossom season, pent-up demand from previous years, and the depreciation of the Yen.

The weakened Turkish Lira, coupled with the growing demand for relaxing and luxurious travel experiences in European travelers, is fueling a surge in travel to Turkey.

Overall, 2023 was a mixed bag, with some countries experiencing significant travel booms while others were still on a slow path to recovery. As a result, while some continue to witness double-digit growth, the pace of growth has slowed in others.


Softening Index Matches Last Year’s Trends

In March 2024, the Skift Travel Health Index stands at 105, softening 4 pp over the last month. This is due to the seasonality of demand, mirroring the trend observed in March 2023. The index still indicates a 5% increase over March 2023 performance levels.

Regional performance slowed this month across all regions, matching the decline in March 2023. Asia Pacific continues to trend 12% above 2023 levels. All other regions below the 100 mark indicate that travel performance in March 2024 was below levels seen in March 2023.

Skift Travel Health Index Score by Region

Region23-Feb23-MarFeb-Mar 2324-Feb24-MarFeb-Mar 24
Asia Pacific165163-2114112-2
Europe124120-410698-8
Latin America118116-210197-4
Middle East and Africa122111-119992-7
North America110101-910399-4
Global Average141137-4109105-4

9 countries on the Travel Health Index are exhibiting growth over 2023 levels. The U.S. is at the same performance levels as March last year. The year 2023 presented a mixed bag, with some countries experiencing a notable travel boom while others were still on a slow path to recovery. As a result, some countries are still witnessing double-digit YoY growth numbers.

China’s Travel Landscape

China continues its path to recovery, growing 21% above 2023 levels. The travel sectors we track show a significant YoY uptick, except the vacation rental sector, which has declined to 62% of 2023 levels. 

Aviation is the best-performing sector in China this month, 60% above 2023 levels. Domestic travel in China has come a long way since the pandemic, but even international travel is growing. China’s domestic airline seat capacity is significantly above 2019 levels, and international seat capacity is also approaching pre-pandemic levels.

International travel intent in China is surging, with a 50% YoY increase in outbound travel intent for the upcoming May Day holidays. This can be attributed to the relaxation of visa requirements for Chinese travelers in many countries, stimulating cross-border travel.

Moving to accommodations, while hotel bookings in China have grown over the last year, vacation rental bookings have declined. This highlights that hotels appear to be the preferred accommodation option in China.

While hotel bookings have increased, hotel Average Daily Rates (ADRs) have not grown over the last year. At this time last year, China was still reopening for travel. As a result, hotel ADRs grew on average 30-40% above pre-pandemic levels from January to March 2023. As travel returns to normalcy in China, ADRs have not witnessed growth yet.

On the other hand, vacation rental ADR levels are on a steep decline. On-the-books vacation rental data shows that ADR is expected to be more than 50% below last year in the coming months.

Travel Peaks in Japan with the Cherry Blossom Season

Japan’s peak travel season is here, reflected by the country’s performance, 17% above March 2023. The country is on the bucket list of European and American travelers and is seeing impressive growth in international visitor arrivals. Japan was one of the top 10 destinations for Western Europeans in 2023. The pent-up demand that has grown over the last few years and the depreciation of the Yen are working to the country’s advantage.

A recent report by Rategain shows that for the travel period between 1 March and 31 May 2024, the Cherry Blossom season, countries in the Asia Pacific region are some of the top origin countries for Japan. 

For this period, the U.S. too is at the top in flight and hotel booking market share. American travelers dominate luxury hotel bookings, with a 56% share. Apart from the favorable currency rate, this surge can be attributed to the promotional initiatives tied to 2024 being the U.S.-Japan Tourism Year. This partnership aims to promote travel, tourism, and cultural exchange between the two countries, which appears to be working.

Top 10 Source Countries

RankingBy Flight BookingsAs a % of Total Flight BookingsBy Hotel BookingsAs a % of Total Hotel Bookings
1Singapore28%U.S.21%
2U.S.19%Australia11%
3Taiwan8%Taiwan9%
4Malaysia7%Hong Kong9%
5Australia6%Singapore6%
6Philippines5%Thailand4%
7Canada3%Canada4%
8Hong Kong2%France2%
9Thailand2%UK2%
10India2%Indonesia2%

Source: Adara, a Rategain Company

Turkey’s Popularity Continues to Grow

The weakened Turkish Lira is fueling the surge in travel to the country. The UK dominated hotel bookings in Turkey during the Ramadan period this year. Additionally, travelers from Germany, Italy, and Spain are taking short trips drawn by shopping, relaxation, and luxury experiences.

A sector dive shows that all sectors except aviation registered significant growth over 2023. Airlines lagged due to a decline in flight searches this month, which stood at 84% of March 2023 levels.

The average price paid for a hotel in Turkey has declined over the last year. However, breaking this down by traveler type reveals that while solo traveler and couple sales declined, family and group travel sales increased.

Conclusion

The Skift Travel Health Index in March 2024 shows an overall softening trend compared to the previous month, with the index dropping by 4 pp. However, some countries continue to showcase robust growth.

China remains at the forefront, growing 21% YoY. Japan’s double-digit growth during the Cherry Blossom season highlights the country’s appeal to travelers, especially after many years of growing pent-up demand. A weakened currency and demand for luxurious experiences are fueling travel in Turkey. 

Methodology

Data Partners

Skift Research collects and analyzes data from 21 different data partners to provide the most comprehensive view of the travel industry’s performance. 

Index Design

The Index tracks 80 indicators per country to assess the health of the travel industry in each country. These indicators are aggregated into performance categories and sub-categories. The top level of division is by travel vertical, and each vertical is further divided by intent indicators, booking indicators, and key performance indicators.

The Index covers the following travel sectors:

Country Coverage

The Index focuses on the travel performance in 22 of the largest tourism economies. Together, the countries account for 62% of inbound tourism receipts, 67% of outbound tourism expenditure, and 78% of global 2019 GDP. 

Index Score Calculation

We have tracked the industry since the beginning of 2020. From 2020 to 2023, each indicator’s performance was compared to the same time in 2019. This means that calculations look as follows:

  1. Performance in January 2020 (Jan 1 – 31 2020) compared to January 2019 (Jan 1 – 31 2019)
  1. Performance in January 2021 (Jan 1 – 31 2021) compared to January 2019 (Jan 1 – 31 2019)
  1. Performance in January 2022 (Jan 1 – 31 2022) compared to January 2019 (Jan 1 – 31 2019)
  1. Performance in January 2023 (Jan 1 – 31 2023) compared to January 2019 (Jan 1 – 31 2019)

The Index provided a score relative to a baseline reading of 100 for the same month in 2019. 

In 2024 and beyond, each indicator’s performance will be compared to the same time in the previous year. This means that calculations will look as follows:

Performance in January 2024 (Jan 1 – 31 2024) compared to January 2023 (Jan 1 – 31 2023)

The full methodology can be found on our website

Data Tables

Total Skift Travel Health Index Scores by Country

Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024
Argentina104.399.1115.0125.8108.188.994.092.6
Australia103.6100.9101.8108.1105.1106.0100.394.9
Brazil114.3108.8114.8118.5109.4108.3105.6101.9
Canada109.3106.8108.7112.5106.0101.8105.3101.8
China153.8152.1153.1151.4147.7141.5120.6120.5
France106.5105.8103.6105.799.5102.297.292.8
Germany114.0110.7112.0116.2111.8108.7112.8101.6
Hong Kong, China160.3145.5145.1149.2137.4140.4123.4116.4
India119.0113.9118.4112.1117.2113.3102.798.3
Indonesia132.1125.5113.7116.4114.0107.697.196.0
Italy106.6104.8107.1112.6104.9104.6103.195.0
Japan155.0144.9137.0138.3130.1120.7122.4117.1
Mexico100.397.897.5103.995.598.5101.695.4
Russia114.7106.8112.8110.297.9103.2102.592.2
Singapore114.6103.3102.9101.6101.1107.6101.493.8
South Africa101.899.6105.2106.995.094.393.887.5
Spain107.7106.4106.4114.5107.7106.7107.998.5
Thailand131.5121.2122.0120.4118.6116.6115.1107.7
Turkey112.7108.0104.2105.8105.3101.1120.2107.8
U.S.100.2101.3101.8107.2101.1100.9103.699.8
United Arab Emirates110.8112.2105.8106.8104.8105.2104.096.3
United Kingdom114.9114.3111.6116.1110.7106.6107.3100.8

Aviation Scores by Country

Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024
Argentina112.4107.8123.3128.4111.3102.1107.8105.3
Australia124123119.8125.4122.6114.6106.3108.6
Brazil118.9112.4116.4121.7115.6107.8104.3104.2
Canada131126.3128.6133.8127.9117.4118.3116.8
China183.2184.1184.1184.1179.8166.8160.4160.2
France111.1111.1105.9108.3103.1107.190.689.0
Germany122120.1116.2119.3111.1104.8110.4104.2
Hong Kong, China183177.9172.1172.4169.2155.5151.7150.4
India122.1116.8117.7117.9119.6109.1110.5109.3
Indonesia150.9139.5134135.4133.5124.8119.9120.0
Italy114.7113.2110.5114.7109.7107.5101.8100.6
Japan168.8158.8149.1150.9144.1132.2130.4138.5
Mexico112.8111.4109.8117.6116.7113.1115.7111.5
Russia99.18699.493.2101.795.789.181.1
Singapore132.3120.8119.8127.9127.2125.5127.2129.6
South Africa107.8111108.7113.9111.2101.8104.5101.4
Spain108.4110.4110.1117.6112.2107.6107.1106.5
Thailand149137.5152.8141.9134.5126.6129.4129.7
Turkey112.1111.5109.4111.3107.7100.695.398.7
U.S.117.1118.8116.5123.8114.6112.8109.6108.3
United Arab Emirates119.6116.6112106.9111.6100.297.592.8
United Kingdom130.1128.3124.6125.5122.2115.9113.9107.1

Aviation contributes 40% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = same month in the previous year.

Hotel Scores by Country

Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024
Argentina100.290.8104.7126.3108.488.389.685.8
Australia93.386.086.689.590.6101.893.786.9
Brazil115.6110.4120.2118.0104.8106.7111.8108.0
Canada99.498.5101.3101.497.8101.0103.6102.3
China142.0148.8150.7149.2142.1139.2116.5112.4
France99.0100.196.1100.896.797.1100.594.4
Germany108.7101.5100.4111.2113.8110.7114.297.1
Hong Kong, China145.5136.0147.8149.5124.7146.4114.9113.7
India108.3104.4134.6112.5130.2135.0122.1110.6
Indonesia107.0111.1101.8105.1106.8102.295.192.7
Italy99.695.896.999.496.796.995.785.5
Japan158.0135.5121.3119.3122.7122.6131.2124.3
Mexico99.194.192.999.990.8101.1106.199.6
Russia142.8134.7130.7129.495.7114.7121.596.4
Singapore110.897.0100.080.080.1104.283.269.1
South Africa99.094.0109.9103.883.2103.1103.492.8
Spain107.3101.699.7110.8105.3106.6108.891.4
Thailand124.6117.4101.797.2104.2107.1111.3103.1
Turkey111.7100.889.690.995.592.8142.5116.9
U.S.95.496.292.595.696.799.6105.6101.0
United Arab Emirates96.5102.997.798.597.2104.0107.695.3
United Kingdom109.2105.099.6105.6103.299.5103.198.0

Hotels contributes 35% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = same month in the previous year.

Vacation Rental Scores by Country

Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024
Argentina126.3125.6114.6119.2118.2115.6106.9116.2
Australia95.193.789.594.897.795.198.2105.1
Brazil115.3114.4104.8105.8109.1107.199.0108.3
Canada103.1100.193.994.994.596.298.1104.0
China65.458.153.652.354.152.954.762.4
France114.3106.2101.3100.999.195.992.496.1
Germany117.6118.0110.5108.8109.7102.1101.9111.9
Hong Kong, China113.6109.9109.8104.6113.2112.893.2100.7
India112.8110.7100.0101.6105.8107.596.1112.0
Indonesia119.3112.5102.697.999.9103.197.3109.1
Italy106.9111.0108.6106.6108.2107.4105.1108.2
Japan165.1163.5146.8139.5136.1127.6124.6116.4
Mexico96.095.591.091.292.094.190.395.7
Russia94.496.7117.5120.081.678.373.990.3
Singapore134.3117.2106.4109.4116.2107.796.3104.2
South Africa109.1102.997.9100.4103.7106.2103.0109.7
Spain107.4109.6112.5112.0114.3110.4109.0113.6
Thailand128.1118.8110.2104.9109.1115.2106.2110.9
Turkey112.8111.196.297.6103.1107.4104.7114.5
U.S.96.897.795.896.998.997.692.794.9
United Arab Emirates124.4129.8120.1121.7121.6117.5106.5112.8
United Kingdom107.2116.5105.6107.9108.3101.297.7104.7

Vacation Rentals contributes 10% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = same month in the previous year.

Car Rental Scores by Country

Aug 2023Sep 2023Oct 2023Nov 2023Dec 2023Jan 2024Feb 2024Mar 2024
Argentina77.377.8117.3139.9110.191.2112.9113.1
Australia88.087.6100.5120.6100.1100.2101.282.0
Brazil120.6113.9132.0146.6130.7145.5121.495.5
Canada103.796.6108.6112.588.291.297.788.3
China180.1179.2177.8178.4173.7180.6116.3107.9
France109.5107.8119.7123.4102.5105.6113.0103.0
Germany108.2108.5135.5138.3119.4130.7135.0116.6
Hong Kong, China174.2113.699.4134.9107.5116.7106.178.7
India158.1139.4139.9147.6133.2122.894.776.0
Indonesia158.1139.4139.9147.6133.2122.894.776.0
Italy107.1105.1127.8146.4111.7112.9125.3105.6
Japan122.6117.6134.5148.4124.0126.1123.897.9
Mexico80.278.8101.5110.080.981.782.867.4
Russia122.1122.1122.1122.1122.1122.1122.1122.1
Singapore74.968.286.2106.6100.4109.9108.285.4
South Africa93.191.995.7111.479.677.273.159.2
Spain110.0108.0120.7133.8106.2111.0119.2101.6
Thailand107.996.8117.9149.1147.9135.3114.289.1
Turkey122.4119.4129.7137.0123.2126.2145.0133.2
U.S.80.380.697.5106.079.686.096.292.9
United Arab Emirates111.7114.9125.3143.3119.9135.4134.0123.5
United Kingdom95.996.8112.6128.1101.9104.6111.9100.2

Car Rental contributes 15% to the total score. The scores in this table have been indexed to give a better insight into performance. 100 = same month in the previous year.

Disclaimer: All rights reserved; content based on data provided by Amadeus, Aviasales, Beyond, CarTrawler, Cendyn, Collinson, Criteo, Duetto, Hotelbeds, Key Data Dashboard, Lighthouse, Nium, OAG, Onyx CenterSource, RateGain, Shiji Group, Skyscanner, Sojern, TravelgateX, and TrustYou. The content and the data provided in this document are for your information and internal use only. The content is provided “as is” without any warranty as to accuracy, completeness, satisfactory quality, or fitness for any particular purpose. It is strictly forbidden to extract, reproduce, republish, or publicly display any content included in this document without the prior written authorization of Skift Research. If you wish to use any of this content or similar data, please contact Skift Research for more information.